Tongkun Co. (601233) 2019 Interim Report Comments: PTA booming polyester sales surge, performance continues to grow
Event: On August 16, 2019, the company released its semi-annual report for 2019: to achieve revenue of 246.
3.3 billion, +31 a year.
90%; net profit attributable to mother 13.
90 trillion, +2 for ten years.
16%; Estimated increase in average net asset income by 8.
31%, a decrease of 1 per year.
Comments: 1, PTA profit is dazzling. In the first half of the year, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother increased by +2.
16%, in line with expectations.
In the first half of 2019, the company achieved net profit attributable to mothers13.
90 trillion, +2 for ten years.
16%, performance growth rose, stable development.
Mainly due to the gradual release of private 夜来香体验网 refining PX production capacity in the first half of 2019, and the decline in PX prices led to a thickening of PTA spreads and bright profits.
The spread of polyester may be compressed, but the increase in the number of polyester sales and the increase in operating load also contributed to the performance.
In terms of spreads, in the first half of 2019, the average PTA spread was 1,037 yuan / ton, which was +24 per year.
37%, +6 from the previous quarter.
The average spread of polyester filament POY was 1,329 yuan / ton, up to -11.
73%, compared to -16.
14%; The average price difference of FDY is 1991 yuan / ton, which is +1 for many years.
74%, +9 from the previous quarter.
66%; the average spread of DTY is 3,047 yuan / ton, +10 for ten years.
In terms of sales volume, in the first half of 2019, the company’s polyester yarn sales were excellent, achieving 285 polyester yarn sales.
14 Initially, at least +34.
31% of which 191 were POY sales.
39 taxes (excluding taxes and an average fine of 7363.
25 yuan / ton), FDY sales 56.
39 statutory (excluding tax average fine 7948.
87 yuan / ton), DTY sales of 37.
36 statutory minimum tax rate 9018.
12 yuan / ton).
2. The supply and demand of polyester filaments continues to improve, and the company continues to increase its volume, which is expected to fully benefit from the uncertainty of the trade war. The growth rate of polyester filament demand this year is expected to be 5% -7%.
The newly added capacity of the industry mainly comes from leading companies. The concentration of the industry has increased and the competitive landscape has improved.
The company currently has a filament production capacity of 600 tons (Hengbang’s 30-inch has been put into production). In the second half of 2019, the company replaced and increased the production capacity of 60 tons / year filament, and the production capacity reached 660 tons, further occupying the market share.
3. The PTA business climate in 2019 is expected to continue in the PTA industry after many years of slump, production capacity has increased significantly, and the operating rate has steadily picked up.
The gradual commissioning of private refining PX has led to the decline in PX prices and the transfer of profits to PTA and polyester ends.In 2019H1, the center of the PTA spread will rise significantly, and PTA leaders will benefit.
The first phase of the company’s Jiaxing Petrochemical has a capacity of 150 tons of PTA, and the second phase of 220 tons of PTA project has been put into operation at the end of 17th, and the PTA self-sufficiency is basically realized at present.
4. Tongkun Yangkou Port Petrochemical Polyester Integrated Project Expansion and Expansion On February 14, 2019, the company issued an announcement saying that it would divide the Tongkun Group (Yangkou Port) Petrochemical with Jiangsu Rudong Yangzui Port Economic Development Zone Management Committee.”Polyester Integrated Project Investment Cooperation Agreement”, plans to invest 16 billion US dollars in Yangkou Port Economic Development Zone to build a new annual output of 2 * 250 into PTA, 90 into FDY, and 150 into POY projects. The first phase of construction is expected to start in 2019From December to December 2022, the construction of the second phase will start from December 2023 to December 2025.
The project intends to adopt INVISTA’s PTA P8 + global leading technology, which has the characteristics of high operational stability, strong production capacity, and the lowest equipment, to realize the transformation and upgrade of integrated production.
At the same time, the project will increase the self-sufficiency rate of PTA in the company’s downstream companies after the project is put into production, and produce differentiated fiber products with higher added value, further increasing the market share.
5. Tongkun Co., Ltd. intends to issue convertible bonds for the first time On March 14, 2019, the company announced that it will publicly issue convertible corporate bonds with a scale of no more than RMB 2.3 billion.Simulation fiber project and annual production of 30 additive green fiber project.
Before the raised funds are in place, the company will use self-raised funds to pay in advance according to the actual situation of the project progress, and replace them after the raised funds are in place.
The company’s annual output of 50 numerical sensors intelligent super-simulation fiber project has obtained a fixed ownership certificate on May 27, 2019.
At present, the application materials for convertible bonds have been submitted to the CSRC for review.
6. Share in Zhejiang Petrochemical and realize the integrated layout of the industrial chain. The company shares 20% of the shares in Zhejiang Petrochemical. The first phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Refining Capacity for 2000 / year includes 400 tons / year PX and 140 tons / year ethylene.
After the project is put into production, the company will realize the entire industrial chain layout of “PX-PTA-polyester filament”, with both scale advantages and advantages of the entire industrial chain. At present, the first phase of the project has been put into trial operation.
7. Investment rating and estimation: It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019/20/21 will be 30 respectively.
89 ppm, corresponding to 8/5/4 times the PE, maintaining the “highly recommended” level.
8. Risk warnings: changes in the macroeconomic environment; fluctuations in prices of raw materials and products; risks of industrial chain extension and development; safety and environmental 杭州桑拿 protection risks; continued growth in costs